Will Rochester get snow this winter? El Niño 2026-27 outlook
Not a forecastNOAA outlook issued Sep 17, 2026. Next update Oct 15, 2026.
Rochester, NY
Snow in past strong El Niño winters
Winters with above-normal snow
3 of 9
In 3 of 9 strong El Niño winters, Rochester got above-normal snow (median 88% of normal).
Normal: 102.0 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).
| Winter | % of normal |
|---|---|
| 1957-58130.8 inPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.89 | 128% |
| 1965-66107.2 inPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.99 | 105% |
| 1972-7373.0 inPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.97 | 72% |
| 1982-83Big 359.9 inPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.40 | 59% |
| 1991-92110.6 inPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.12 | 108% |
| 1997-98Big 399.7 inPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.28 | 98% |
| 2009-1090.2 inPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.50 | 88% |
| 2015-16Big 362.6 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.25 | 61% |
| 2023-2452.5 inPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.42 | 51% |
Snowfall from NOAA station record Rochester Area (ThreadEx; current station FREDERICK DOUGLASS GREATER ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT) (ROCthr, 540 ft).
Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.
NOAA Dec–Feb outlook
Official- Temperature
- 50–59% chance Above normal
- Precipitation
- Equal chances
Equal chances: NOAA sees no strong tilt toward above- or below-normal precipitation here this winter.
Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.
El Niño now
- NOAA status
- El Niño Advisory
- RONI, JAS 2026
- +1.69 °C
- Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
- 75%
NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. (NOAA CPC, Sep 10, 2026.)
Rochester in short
NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Rochester: temperature 50–59% chance Above normal; precipitation equal chances.
Among the 9 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 1957-58 (130.8 in, 128% of normal) and the least snowy was 2023-24 (52.5 in, 51% of normal).
In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (59.9 in, 59% of normal), 1997-98 (99.7 in, 98% of normal), 2015-16 (62.6 in, 61% of normal).
Not a forecast
This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.
About this station
- Station: Rochester Area (ThreadEx; current station FREDERICK DOUGLASS GREATER ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT), ACIS id
ROCthr, GHCNUSW00014768. - Matched by station name.
How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .