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El Niño Winter Snow Outlookby plusbeauxjours

Will Erie, PA get snow this winter? El Niño 2026-27 outlook

Not a forecastNOAA outlook issued Sep 17, 2026. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

Erie, PA

Snow in past strong El Niño winters

Winters with above-normal snow

0 of 8

In 0 of 8 strong El Niño winters, Erie got above-normal snow (median 65% of normal).

Normal: 104.3 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).

Seasonal snowfall at Erie, PA in strong El Niño winters
Winter% of normal
1957-5864.4 inPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.8962%
1965-6684.8 inPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.9981%
1972-7353.7 inPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.9751%
1982-83Big 341.2 inPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.4040%
1991-92104.8 inPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.12100%
1997-98Big 3No dataPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.28—
2009-1091.4 inPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.5088%
2015-16Big 371.2 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.2568%
2023-2424.8 inPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.4224%

Snowfall from NOAA station record Erie Area (ThreadEx; current station ERIE INTL AP) (ERIthr, 729 ft).

Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.

NOAA Dec–Feb outlook

Official
Temperature
50–59% chance Above normal
Precipitation
Equal chances

Equal chances: NOAA sees no strong tilt toward above- or below-normal precipitation here this winter.

Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

El Niño now

NOAA status
El Niño Advisory
RONI, JAS 2026
+1.69 °C
Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
75%

NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. (NOAA CPC, Sep 10, 2026.)

Erie in short

NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Erie: temperature 50–59% chance Above normal; precipitation equal chances.

Among the 8 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 1991-92 (104.8 in, 100% of normal) and the least snowy was 2023-24 (24.8 in, 24% of normal).

In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (41.2 in, 40% of normal), no complete data for 1997-98, 2015-16 (71.2 in, 68% of normal).

Not a forecast

This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.

About this station

  • Station: Erie Area (ThreadEx; current station ERIE INTL AP), ACIS id ERIthr, GHCN USW00014860.
  • Matched by station name.

How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .