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El Niño Winter Snow Outlookby plusbeauxjours

Will Keystone get snow this winter? El Niño 2026-27 outlook

Not a forecastNOAA outlook issued Sep 17, 2026. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

Keystone, CO

Ski area

Snowfall below is from a nearby long-term NOAA station, not summit or resort-reported snowfall.

Snow in past strong El Niño winters

Winters with above-normal snow

4 of 8

In 4 of 8 strong El Niño winters, Keystone got above-normal snow (median 103% of normal).

Normal: 115.5 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).

Seasonal snowfall at Keystone, CO in strong El Niño winters
Winter% of normal
1957-58168.5 inPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.89146%
1965-6690.0 inPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.9978%
1972-73124.0 inPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.97107%
1982-83Big 3139.4 inPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.40121%
1991-9295.5 inPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.1283%
1997-98Big 3No dataPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.28—
2009-1088.5 inPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.5077%
2015-16Big 3114.5 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.2599%
2023-24143.0 inPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.42124%

Snowfall from the nearest long-record NOAA station: DILLON 1 E (9,081 ft), 7.1 km from the resort. Resort-reported totals may differ.

Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.

NOAA Dec–Feb outlook

Official
Temperature
Equal chances
Precipitation
33–39% chance Above normal

Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

El Niño now

NOAA status
El Niño Advisory
RONI, JAS 2026
+1.69 °C
Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
75%

NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. (NOAA CPC, Sep 10, 2026.)

Keystone in short

NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Keystone: temperature equal chances; precipitation 33–39% chance Above normal.

Among the 8 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 1957-58 (168.5 in, 146% of normal) and the least snowy was 2009-10 (88.5 in, 77% of normal).

In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (139.4 in, 121% of normal), no complete data for 1997-98, 2015-16 (114.5 in, 99% of normal).

Not a forecast

This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.

About this station

  • Station: DILLON 1 E, ACIS id 052281.
  • Resort coordinates from Wikipedia (“Keystone Resort”, accessed 2026-10-05).
  • Nearest long-record NOAA COOP station: DILLON 1 E (COOP 052281, 9,081 ft, 7.1 km away; snow record 1893-01-10…2026-10-04).
  • This is a nearby long-term station, not summit or resort-reported snowfall.

How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .