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El Niño Winter Snow Outlookby plusbeauxjours

Aspen Snowmass: snow this winter? El Niño 2026-27

Not a forecastNOAA outlook issued Sep 17, 2026. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

Aspen Snowmass, CO

Ski area

Snowfall below is from a nearby long-term NOAA station, not summit or resort-reported snowfall.

Snow in past strong El Niño winters

Winters with above-normal snow

5 of 6

In 5 of 6 strong El Niño winters, Aspen Snowmass got above-normal snow (median 104% of normal).

Normal: 170.8 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).

Seasonal snowfall at Aspen Snowmass, CO in strong El Niño winters
Winter% of normal
1957-58No dataPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.89—
1965-66No dataPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.99—
1972-73No dataPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.97—
1982-83Big 3211.9 inPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.40124%
1991-92134.3 inPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.1279%
1997-98Big 3181.6 inPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.28106%
2009-10172.8 inPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.50101%
2015-16Big 3176.5 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.25103%
2023-24178.9 inPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.42105%

Snowfall from the nearest long-record NOAA station: ASPEN 1SW (8,175 ft), 1.7 km from the resort. Resort-reported totals may differ.

Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.

NOAA Dec–Feb outlook

Official
Temperature
Equal chances
Precipitation
Equal chances

Equal chances: NOAA sees no strong tilt toward above- or below-normal precipitation here this winter.

Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

El Niño now

NOAA status
El Niño Advisory
RONI, JAS 2026
+1.69 °C
Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
75%

NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. (NOAA CPC, Sep 10, 2026.)

Aspen Snowmass in short

NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Aspen Snowmass: temperature equal chances; precipitation equal chances.

Among the 6 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 1982-83 (211.9 in, 124% of normal) and the least snowy was 1991-92 (134.3 in, 79% of normal).

In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (211.9 in, 124% of normal), 1997-98 (181.6 in, 106% of normal), 2015-16 (176.5 in, 103% of normal).

Not a forecast

This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.

About this station

  • Station: ASPEN 1SW, ACIS id 050372.
  • Resort coordinates from Wikipedia (“Aspen Mountain (ski area)”, accessed 2026-10-05).
  • Nearest long-record NOAA COOP station: ASPEN 1SW (COOP 050372, 8,175 ft, 1.7 km away; snow record 1980-07-01…2026-08-31).
  • This is a nearby long-term station, not summit or resort-reported snowfall.

How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .