Will Seattle get snow this winter? El Niño 2026-27 outlook
Not a forecastNOAA outlook issued Sep 17, 2026. Next update Oct 15, 2026.
Seattle, WA
Snow in past strong El Niño winters
Winters with above-normal snow
2 of 8
In 2 of 8 strong El Niño winters, Seattle got above-normal snow (median 0% of normal).
Normal: 6.3 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).
| Winter | % of normal |
|---|---|
| 1957-58TracePeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.89 | 0% |
| 1965-6622.9 inPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.99 | 363% |
| 1972-739.1 inPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.97 | 144% |
| 1982-83Big 3TracePeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.40 | 0% |
| 1991-920 inPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.12 | 0% |
| 1997-98Big 3No dataPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.28 | — |
| 2009-10TracePeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.50 | 0% |
| 2015-16Big 3TracePeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.25 | 0% |
| 2023-240.3 inPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.42 | 5% |
Snowfall from NOAA station record Seattle Tacoma Area (ThreadEx; current station SEATTLE TACOMA AIRPORT) (SEAthr, 369 ft).
“0 in” / “Trace” = no measurable snow in the station record. Not yet cross-checked against NWS local climate summaries (unverified).
Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.
NOAA Dec–Feb outlook
Official- Temperature
- 40–49% chance Above normal
- Precipitation
- Equal chances
Equal chances: NOAA sees no strong tilt toward above- or below-normal precipitation here this winter.
Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.
El Niño now
- NOAA status
- El Niño Advisory
- RONI, JAS 2026
- +1.69 °C
- Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
- 75%
NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. (NOAA CPC, Sep 10, 2026.)
Seattle in short
NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Seattle: temperature 40–49% chance Above normal; precipitation equal chances.
Among the 8 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 1965-66 (22.9 in, 363% of normal) and the least snowy was 2015-16 (Trace, 0% of normal).
In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (Trace, 0% of normal), no complete data for 1997-98, 2015-16 (Trace, 0% of normal).
Not a forecast
This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.
About this station
- Station: Seattle Tacoma Area (ThreadEx; current station SEATTLE TACOMA AIRPORT), ACIS id
SEAthr, GHCNUSW00024233. - Station chosen manually — Sea-Tac is the station used in SPEC §5's verified sample (the automatic rule picked Seattle City / Sand Point).
How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .