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El Niño Winter Snow Outlookby plusbeauxjours

Raleigh–Durham: snow this winter? El Niño 2026-27

Not a forecastNOAA outlook issued Sep 17, 2026. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

Raleigh–Durham, NC

Snow in past strong El Niño winters

Winters with above-normal snow

5 of 9

In 5 of 9 strong El Niño winters, Raleigh–Durham got above-normal snow (median 152% of normal).

Normal: 5.2 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).

Seasonal snowfall at Raleigh–Durham, NC in strong El Niño winters
Winter% of normal
1957-587.9 inPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.89152%
1965-6611.8 inPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.99227%
1972-7311.3 inPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.97217%
1982-83Big 311.8 inPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.40227%
1991-92TracePeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.120%
1997-98Big 32.4 inPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.2846%
2009-108.0 inPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.50154%
2015-16Big 31.4 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.2527%
2023-24TracePeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.420%

Snowfall from NOAA station record Raleigh Area (ThreadEx; current station RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT) (RDUthr, 395 ft).

“0 in” / “Trace” = no measurable snow in the station record. Not yet cross-checked against NWS local climate summaries (unverified).

Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.

NOAA Dec–Feb outlook

Official
Temperature
33–39% chance Above normal
Precipitation
50–59% chance Above normal

Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

El Niño now

NOAA status
El Niño Advisory
RONI, JAS 2026
+1.69 °C
Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
75%

NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. (NOAA CPC, Sep 10, 2026.)

Raleigh–Durham in short

NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Raleigh–Durham: temperature 33–39% chance Above normal; precipitation 50–59% chance Above normal.

Among the 9 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 1965-66 (11.8 in, 227% of normal) and the least snowy was 2023-24 (Trace, 0% of normal).

In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (11.8 in, 227% of normal), 1997-98 (2.4 in, 46% of normal), 2015-16 (1.4 in, 27% of normal).

Not a forecast

This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.

About this station

  • Station: Raleigh Area (ThreadEx; current station RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT), ACIS id RDUthr, GHCN USW00013722.
  • Also covers: Durham, NC.
  • Matched by station name.
  • Shares one station record with: Raleigh, NC; Durham, NC.

How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .