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El Niño Winter Snow Outlookby plusbeauxjours

Lake Tahoe (Tahoe City): snow this winter? El Niño 2026-27

Not a forecastNOAA outlook issued Sep 17, 2026. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

Lake Tahoe (Tahoe City), CA

Ski area

Snowfall below is from a nearby long-term NOAA station, not summit or resort-reported snowfall.

Snow in past strong El Niño winters

Winters with above-normal snow

5 of 8

In 5 of 8 strong El Niño winters, Lake Tahoe (Tahoe City) got above-normal snow (median 120% of normal).

Normal: 179.0 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).

Seasonal snowfall at Lake Tahoe (Tahoe City), CA in strong El Niño winters
Winter% of normal
1957-58293.5 inPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.89164%
1965-66208.6 inPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.99117%
1972-73163.5 inPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.9791%
1982-83Big 3222.1 inPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.40124%
1991-92No dataPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.12—
1997-98Big 3233.5 inPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.28130%
2009-10221.0 inPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.50123%
2015-16Big 3140.0 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.2578%
2023-24169.7 inPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.4295%

Snowfall from the nearest long-record NOAA station: TAHOE CITY (6,230 ft), 0.6 km from the resort. Resort-reported totals may differ.

Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.

NOAA Dec–Feb outlook

Official
Temperature
33–39% chance Above normal
Precipitation
33–39% chance Above normal

Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

El Niño now

NOAA status
El Niño Advisory
RONI, JAS 2026
+1.69 °C
Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
75%

NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. (NOAA CPC, Sep 10, 2026.)

Lake Tahoe (Tahoe City) in short

NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Lake Tahoe (Tahoe City): temperature 33–39% chance Above normal; precipitation 33–39% chance Above normal.

Among the 8 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 1957-58 (293.5 in, 164% of normal) and the least snowy was 2015-16 (140.0 in, 78% of normal).

In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (222.1 in, 124% of normal), 1997-98 (233.5 in, 130% of normal), 2015-16 (140.0 in, 78% of normal).

Not a forecast

This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.

About this station

  • Station: TAHOE CITY, ACIS id 048758.
  • Also covers: Palisades Tahoe, CA; Sugar Bowl, CA.
  • Resort coordinates from Wikipedia (“Tahoe City, California”, accessed 2026-10-05).
  • Nearest long-record NOAA COOP station: TAHOE CITY (COOP 048758, 6,230 ft, 0.6 km away; snow record 1904-02-01…2026-10-03).
  • This is a nearby long-term station, not summit or resort-reported snowfall.
  • Several resorts share this station: Lake Tahoe (Tahoe City), Palisades Tahoe, Sugar Bowl.

How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .