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El Niño Winter Snow Outlookby plusbeauxjours

Great Falls: snow this winter? El Niño 2026-27

Not a forecastNOAA outlook issued Sep 17, 2026. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

Great Falls, MT

Snow in past strong El Niño winters

Winters with above-normal snow

2 of 9

In 2 of 9 strong El Niño winters, Great Falls got above-normal snow (median 78% of normal).

Normal: 66.1 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).

Seasonal snowfall at Great Falls, MT in strong El Niño winters
Winter% of normal
1957-5872.7 inPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.89110%
1965-6656.8 inPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.9986%
1972-7360.2 inPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.9791%
1982-83Big 345.6 inPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.4069%
1991-9237.1 inPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.1256%
1997-98Big 338.0 inPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.2857%
2009-1077.2 inPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.50117%
2015-16Big 346.9 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.2571%
2023-2451.8 inPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.4278%

Snowfall from NOAA station record Great Falls Area (ThreadEx; current station GREAT FALLS AIRPORT) (GTFthr, 3,667 ft).

Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.

NOAA Dec–Feb outlook

Official
Temperature
40–49% chance Above normal
Precipitation
40–49% chance Below normal

Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

El Niño now

NOAA status
El Niño Advisory
RONI, JAS 2026
+1.69 °C
Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
75%

NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. (NOAA CPC, Sep 10, 2026.)

Great Falls in short

NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Great Falls: temperature 40–49% chance Above normal; precipitation 40–49% chance Below normal.

Among the 9 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 2009-10 (77.2 in, 117% of normal) and the least snowy was 1991-92 (37.1 in, 56% of normal).

In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (45.6 in, 69% of normal), 1997-98 (38.0 in, 57% of normal), 2015-16 (46.9 in, 71% of normal).

Not a forecast

This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.

About this station

  • Station: Great Falls Area (ThreadEx; current station GREAT FALLS AIRPORT), ACIS id GTFthr, GHCN USW00024143.
  • Matched by station name.

How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .