Will Duluth get snow this winter? El Niño 2026-27 outlook
Not a forecastNOAA outlook issued Sep 17, 2026. Next update Oct 15, 2026.
Duluth, MN
Snow in past strong El Niño winters
Winters with above-normal snow
2 of 9
In 2 of 9 strong El Niño winters, Duluth got above-normal snow (median 89% of normal).
Normal: 90.2 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).
| Winter | % of normal |
|---|---|
| 1957-5848.4 inPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.89 | 54% |
| 1965-6690.0 inPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.99 | 100% |
| 1972-7345.8 inPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.97 | 51% |
| 1982-83Big 396.5 inPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.40 | 107% |
| 1991-92100.0 inPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.12 | 111% |
| 1997-98Big 380.1 inPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.28 | 89% |
| 2009-1065.8 inPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.50 | 73% |
| 2015-16Big 381.4 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.25 | 90% |
| 2023-2438.7 inPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.42 | 43% |
Snowfall from NOAA station record Duluth Area (ThreadEx; current station DULUTH INTL AP) (DLHthr, 1,422 ft).
Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.
NOAA Dec–Feb outlook
Official- Temperature
- 50–59% chance Above normal
- Precipitation
- Equal chances
Equal chances: NOAA sees no strong tilt toward above- or below-normal precipitation here this winter.
Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.
El Niño now
- NOAA status
- El Niño Advisory
- RONI, JAS 2026
- +1.69 °C
- Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
- 75%
NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. (NOAA CPC, Sep 10, 2026.)
Duluth in short
NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Duluth: temperature 50–59% chance Above normal; precipitation equal chances.
Among the 9 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 1991-92 (100.0 in, 111% of normal) and the least snowy was 2023-24 (38.7 in, 43% of normal).
In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (96.5 in, 107% of normal), 1997-98 (80.1 in, 89% of normal), 2015-16 (81.4 in, 90% of normal).
Not a forecast
This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.
About this station
- Station: Duluth Area (ThreadEx; current station DULUTH INTL AP), ACIS id
DLHthr, GHCNUSW00014913. - Matched by station name.
How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .